A Lamb Associates Limited

The Disruptor – System Dynamics

The Chain

It is a simple truth that every construction project incurs disruption and disruption causes increased costs.

These increased costs, often run to millions. However, despite the magnitude of costs, disruption is viewed as an elusive, ethereal animal. Belief in this strange beast is often met with derision.

In my view, industry contempt for disruption claims flows from seeking to mechanically apply jurisprudence orthodoxy to disruption – i.e. the rigid ‘chain of causation’. In my opinion, this rusty old chain can fetter good claims. Disruption is complicated. A straightforward chain will not suffice. Causation is interlinked, overlapping, creating domino and butterfly effects.

The Net

In the 1918 Leyland Shipping Case, Lord Shaw had it that:

Causation is not a chain, but a net.

The ‘net of causation’ far better encapsulates the realities of construction disruption.

It is true that for straightforward, linear construction activities, the Measured Mile provides a solid basis for assessing disruption. However, I have found, a Measured Mile can be challenging to sustain on complex, multifaceted projects. It is not the right tool for every job.

The Disruptor

A more complex system is required to capture disruption. In this authors view, the apparatus for next generation disruption claims, was developed at MIT in 1956, by the brilliant Jay W Forrester. His landmark ‘causal framework’ thesis which later became known as ‘System Dynamics’.

System Dynamics deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in dynamic systems. It was first utilised in 1976 for US defence project to demonstrate disruption and has since been used 100+ times across construction and engineering projects in disputes worldwide.

System Dynamics was endorsed in the 2017 SCL Delay and Disruption Protocol, which often acts as a ‘play book’ for construction disputes in the UK.

 

 

ALA System Dynamics Services

ALA has always sought to innovate going back to pioneering the ‘Cost Control Relational Database’ for pipelines in the year 2000. We see System Dynamics as the next big thing.

ALA is delighted to employ specialist consultants that develop robust disruption analysis utilising System Dynamics modelling. This team is led by ALA Commercial director Byron Tyson.

With Systemic Dynamics ALA can confidently decipher, model and quantify disruption from the ‘chaos’ of major projects. As Lord Petyr Baelishs says:

Chaos isn’t a pit. Chaos is a ladder.

 

Please get in touch to find out more. We will be providing presentations regarding our System Dynamics services in the coming weeks.

Article by Byron Tyson. 

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